In 2024, BRS Tanker warned that the so-called "shadow fleet"—tankers transporting crude oil from U.S.-sanctioned countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, operating outside conventional regulatory standards—was insufficiently monitored. A year later, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Sanctions have become the primary tool of pressure, targeting not only the vessels but also their owners, operators, insurers, and even associated individuals. Despite this intensified regulatory crackdown, the shadow fleet continues to expand, highlighting its resilience and the complexities of global energy trade.

Unchecked Growth Amid Sanctions

Since December 2024, the shadow fleet has grown by approximately 30 vessels per month, reaching a total of 1,140 tankers with a combined capacity of 127.4 million deadweight tons (dwt). According to the latest BRS Tanker weekly report, “The expansion is remarkable, especially considering that 17.3% of tankers over 34,000 dwt now belong to this category.” This growth coincides with a sharp increase in sanctioned vessels. In 2023, 191 tankers, representing 25% of the shadow fleet, were under sanctions. By 2025, this figure has surged to 886 vessels, or 78% of the total, meaning nearly 9% of the world’s tankers are currently blacklisted.

Most sanctions are indirect, stemming from connections to entities like Iran’s NITC, Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Venezuela’s PDVSA. Paradoxically, the regulatory pressure appears to be driving more vessels into the shadow fleet. The persistent demand for Iranian and Russian crude, coupled with some traders’ preference for non-sanctioned vessels, has created a thriving market for older ships still capable of operating. The BRS report warns, “If traders continue to avoid sanctioned vessels, this could further boost the shadow fleet’s capacity, particularly for Aframax tankers.”

Aging Fleet and Rising Risks

The shadow fleet’s aging vessels pose significant risks. With an average age of 20.2 years compared to 15 years for the conventional fleet, these tankers are more prone to mechanical failures and environmental hazards. In 2025, 180 tankers over 34,000 dwt have been sold to continue operations, while only 16 have been scrapped. “Each additional year of operation exponentially increases associated risks,” BRS Tanker notes. While some vessels undergo dry-dock maintenance, concerns persist about the lack of transparency in their insurance coverage. The report highlights that “a major pollution incident would test the capacity of non-Western insurers to cover costs,” raising fears of environmental disasters.

The shadow fleet’s operations are further complicated by its reliance on complex ownership structures and tactics like disabling transponders to evade detection, as noted in posts on X discussing similar fleets. These practices make it difficult for regulators and law enforcement to track or hold operators accountable, exacerbating safety and environmental concerns.

Challenges of Exiting the Shadow Fleet

Exiting the shadow fleet is no easy task. Financial restrictions, particularly those tied to the U.S. banking system, make it challenging to sell these vessels to conventional buyers or shipbreaking yards. However, some recycling facilities, facing a shortage of activity, are beginning to accept shadow fleet vessels at reduced prices. Data indicates that 15 tankers were scrapped between 2024 and 2025, eight of which were sanctioned. For instance, the Suezmax tanker “Nolan,” sanctioned in 2019 for carrying Iranian oil, is currently being dismantled in Alang, India, marking a potential turning point for the fleet’s future.

The broader implications of the shadow fleet’s persistence are profound. A separate report notes that over 4,000 seafarers on 282 abandoned vessels, many part of the shadow fleet, face dire conditions, often unpaid and stranded for months due to port authorities requiring crews to remain aboard for safety. This humanitarian crisis underscores the fleet’s operational opacity and the challenges of enforcing accountability.

Future Prospects and Uncertainties

A critical question looms: what happens to the shadow fleet if sanctions on Iran, Russia, or Venezuela are lifted? BRS Tanker suggests that while conventional vessels could quickly return to mainstream trade routes, sanctioned tankers would face significant hurdles. “It is likely easier for a shipbreaking yard to accept a previously sanctioned vessel than for a major international charterer to reintegrate it,” the report concludes. This dynamic suggests that the shadow fleet’s vessels may remain in a regulatory limbo, even if geopolitical conditions shift.

Recent moves by countries like Panama, which revoked the registration of 128 vessels linked to Russia and Iran, and Australia’s sanctions on 60 shadow fleet tankers, indicate growing international efforts to curb these operations. However, with estimates suggesting the fleet ranges from 600 to 1,200 ships, the challenge remains daunting.

As long as demand for sanctioned oil persists and regulatory loopholes remain, the shadow fleet will continue to navigate murky waters, balancing logistical necessity with latent risks. The interplay of sanctions, aging infrastructure, and global energy demands ensures that this shadowy segment of maritime trade will remain a focal point of geopolitical and environmental scrutiny.

Source: Maritime World